Response to Comment on “Erosion of Lizard Diversity by Climate Change and Altered Thermal Niches”

We derived physiological models that accurately predicted extinctions of Mexican and other lizards. Clusella-Trullas and Chown argue that global forecasts are unreliable without incorporating variance in microenvironmental temperatures, Te. Here, we show that Te variance is small relative to Te increases from climate warming. Thus, extinction forecasts are reliable ( R 2 0:72) even without Te variance data. We predicted extinctions of MexicanSceloporus lizards by deriving phys-iological models based on field (Tb) and preferred body temperatures (Tp), maximum daily air temperatures (Tmax), and activity-time restrictions during reproduction, hr = cumulative hours/day when Te> Tp (1). Clusella-Trullas and Chown (2) assert that our failure to include spatial heterogeneity in microenvironmental tem-peratures (Te)—and thus assess thermal opportu-nities at local population scales—overestimate